Oil and Gas Exploration Investment Opportunities from 2025 Onwards

Oil and Gas Exploration Investment Opportunities 

The oil and gas sector remains a critical component of the global energy mix, despite the rise of renewable energy sources. While the long-term trajectory of the industry is subject to ongoing debate, significant opportunities exist for investors seeking to capitalize on oil and gas exploration projects in the coming years. This report examines key exploration projects planned for 2025 and beyond, assesses their investment potential, and analyzes the associated risks.

Upcoming Oil and Gas Exploration Projects (2025 and beyond)

Several major oil and gas exploration projects are slated to commence operations from 2025 onwards. These projects represent significant investments in new production capacity and offer potential returns for investors. Some of the most notable projects include:

BP’s Major Projects

BP, a global energy giant, has a diverse portfolio of oil and gas exploration projects planned for 2025 and beyond. These projects span various regions and encompass a range of development types, including deepwater oil, LNG, and conventional oil. (1)

Project	Location	Operator	Partners	Project Type	Start-Up	Peak Annual Average Production (gross)	Peak Annual Average Production (net to BP)
Atlantis Drill Center 1 Expansion	Gulf of America	BP	BP (60.5%), Woodside Energy (23.9%), Chevron (15.6%)	Deepwater oil	2026	~20mboed	~10mboed
Argos Southwest Extension	Gulf of America	BP	BP (56%), BHP Billiton (44%)	Deepwater oil	2026	Not specified	Not specified
Azeri Central East (ACE)	Azerbaijan	BP	BP (30.37%)	Deepwater oil	2024	~100,000 bopd	Not specified
Browse	Australia	BP	Not specified	Gas	Beyond 2030	Not specified	Not specified
Clair Ridge Expansion	UK North Sea	BP	BP (28.6%)	Oil	2018	120,000 bopd	Not specified
Coconut	Trinidad	EOG	BP (50%), EOG (50%)	LNG	2025	Not specified	Not specified
Cypre		BP	Not specified	Not specified	Not specified	Not specified	Not specified
Ginger		BP	Not specified	Not specified	Not specified	Not specified	Not specified
GTA Phase 2	Mauritania and Senegal	BP	BP (56%), Kosmos (27%), PETROSEN (10%), SMHPM (7%)	LNG	2024	~70 mboed	~35 mboed
Kaskida	Gulf of America	BP	BP (100%)	Deepwater oil	Beyond 2025	~85mboed	~75mboed
Mento	Trinidad	BP	Not specified	Not specified	Not specified	Not specified	Not specified
Murlach	North Sea	BP	BP (80%), NEO Energy (20%)	Conventional oil	2025	~20mboed	~15mboed
Raven Infills	Egypt	BP	Not specified	Gas	Not specified	Not specified	Not specified
Shah Deniz Compression	Azerbaijan Georgia Türkiye	BP	Not specified	Gas	Not specified	Not specified	Not specified
Tangguh Ubadari Compression and Capture	Indonesia	BP	Not specified	Gas	Not specified	Not specified	Not specified
Tiber	Gulf of America	BP	Not specified	Oil	Not specified	Not specified	Not specified

These projects highlight BP’s commitment to maintaining a significant presence in the oil and gas sector, with a focus on high-margin production and growth in LNG supply2. Notably, BP aims to increase its underlying production to 2025 by adding approximately 200 mboed of high-margin production from nine major project start-ups, achieving a greater than 30% increase in LNG supply to around 25 mtpa, and increasing production in its US onshore business (bpx) by 30-40%. (2)

Global Top Ten Upcoming Oil Fields

In addition to BP’s projects, several other significant oil fields are expected to commence production in the coming years. These include:

• Irkinskoye West (Zapadno-Irkinskoye): Located in Krasnoyarsk Krai, Russia, this field is operated by Shell plc and is expected to begin production in 2024 and peak in 2030 with an estimated output of 0.45 million barrels per day (mmbpd) of crude oil and condensate.
• Eridu: Located in Al Muthanna, Iraq, this crude oil field is owned by Inpex (20%) and Lukoil Oil Co (80%) and operated by LUKOIL Overseas Iraq Exploration. Production from this field is expected to begin in 2025 and is forecasted to peak in 2028, approximately at the rate of 0.25 mmbpd of crude oil and condensate.
• May River: Located in Alberta, Canada, this crude oil field is owned by MEG Energy (100%) and operated by MEG Energy. Production from this field is expected to begin in 2026 and is forecasted to peak in 2031, approximately at the rate of 0.16 mmbpd of crude oil and condensate.
• Dover Commercial Project: Located in Alberta, Canada, this crude oil field is owned by China National Petroleum (100%) and operated by PetroChina Co. Production from this field is expected to begin in 2026 and is forecasted to peak in 2036, approximately at the rate of 0.25 mmbpd of crude oil and condensate. Based on GlobalData estimates, production will continue until the field reaches its economic limit in 2077.
• Narrows Lake: Located in Alberta, Canada, this crude oil field is owned and operated by Cenovus Energy. Production from this field is expected to begin in 2025 and is forecasted to peak in 2045, approximately at the rate of 0.14 mmbpd of crude oil and condensate.
• Bacalhau: Located in the South Atlantic Ocean, Brazil, this crude oil field is owned by China Petrochemical (6%), Equinor (40%), Exxon Mobil Corp (40%), Galp Energia SGPS (14%) and operated by Equinor Brasil Energia. Production from this field is expected to begin in 2025 and is forecasted to peak in 2027, approximately at the rate of 0.21 mmbpd of crude oil and condensate.

These projects represent a global diversification of oil and gas exploration activities, with significant investments being made in both established and emerging production regions.

Oil and Gas Exploration in the United States

The Permian Basin

The Permian Basin in the United States continues to be a focal point for oil and gas exploration. Companies are adapting their strategies to address challenges such as low oil prices and peaking productivity gains3. However, new midstream infrastructure, such as the 2.5 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) Matterhorn Express Pipeline, which began transporting natural gas in October 2024, is expected to alleviate some bottlenecks. (3)

In addition to Matterhorn, three new Permian Basin pipeline projects with a combined capacity of 7.3 Bcf/d are in various stages of development and are expected to be completed between 2026 and 20283. These infrastructure developments are expected to support the profitable growth strategy of shale majors in 2025 and beyond. (3)

Project 2025

“Project 2025” is a policy initiative aimed at prioritizing oil and gas activities on public lands and waters in the United States. This initiative seeks to streamline permitting processes, reduce regulatory burdens, and increase access to federal lands for oil and gas development.

While the environmental implications of this initiative are subject to debate, it could potentially unlock significant new exploration opportunities for oil and gas companies in the United States. Project 2025 also includes proposals for how to get more land and water into the hands of oil and gas companies with changes to lease sales for oil and gas, which are when companies can bid for the right to rent and develop on public lands and waters. (4)

Mexico’s Top Oil and Gas Projects

Mexico is also emerging as a key player in the oil and gas sector, with several major projects underway. These include:

• Ku-Maloob-Zaap (KMZ): One of Mexico’s primary oil-producing fields, KMZ is undergoing modernization and further development to increase crude oil production. A recent $1.65 billion agreement aims to boost output from mature fields within KMZ by up to tenfold, peaking at over 40 mmbpd by mid-2028. (5)
• Zama: This shallow-water oil field in the Sureste Basin holds estimated recoverable reserves of 625.68 million barrels of oil equivalent (Mboe) and 243.29 billion cubic feet (Bcf) of gas. Production is scheduled to commence in December 2025, with peak production targets of 180,000 barrels of oil and 70.35 Mcf of gas daily by 2029. (5)

These projects highlight Mexico’s growing importance in the global oil and gas landscape and offer potential investment opportunities in a region with significant reserves.

Investment Potential of Oil and Gas Exploration Projects

The investment potential of oil and gas exploration projects is influenced by a variety of factors, including resource size and quality, production costs, market conditions, technological advancements, and the regulatory environment. While the specific investment potential of each project varies including carrying different risks and rewards, the overall outlook for oil and gas exploration remains positive.

Total global crude oil and condensate production increased by 4.21% in 2023 when compared with 2022. The largest oil-producing countries are the US, Russia, and Saudi Arabia. Through to 2030, annual global oil production is forecast to decrease by a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 0.21%. This suggests continued demand for oil and gas in the coming years, supporting investment in exploration projects.

Furthermore, global data forecasts a strong uptick in exploration licensing. If fully exploited, oil and gas reserves set to be licensed for exploration in the next 6 months would emit 15 billion tonnes of CO2 equivalent6. That is nearly as much as the United States’ and China’s combined emissions in 2022. (6)

The 10 countries with the biggest licensing plans, in terms of embodied emissions, are China, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Indonesia, the United States, Iran, Angola, Australia, Nigeria, and India6. This indicates a continued commitment to oil and gas exploration, despite the global push for decarbonization.

Atlantis Drill Center 1 Expansion

The Atlantis Drill Center 1 Expansion (DC1X) project in the Gulf of America is a two-well subsea tie-back to the existing Atlantis facility. (1)

The Atlantis field holds significant potential, with an estimated 400 million barrels of oil discovered through advanced seismic imaging techniques. The expansion project is expected to increase production at the platform by 36,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd). BP, the operator of the Atlantis field, aims to increase its production in the Gulf of America to 400,000 boepd by mid-2025.

Future projects are expected to further strengthen the company’s operations in the Gulf of America, including phase four and five of the Atlantis field and expansion and tiebacks at the Thunder Horse, Mad Dog, and Na Kika fields. (7)

Argos Southwest Extension

The Argos Southwest Extension project in the Gulf of America is a three-well subsea tie-back to the Argos facility (1.) While specific production figures are not available, the project is expected to contribute to BP’s overall production growth in the Gulf of Americao. (2)

Azeri Central East (ACE)

The Azeri Central East (ACE) project is a development in the Azerbaijan sector of the Caspian Sea that includes a new 48-slot production, drilling and quarters platform1. The project is expected to produce up to 300 million barrels over its lifetime8. The ACE platform is technologically and digitally the most advanced BP-operated platform in the world, with innovative engineering that allows automation of labor-intensive processes, enabling safer and more efficient operations. (8)

Browse

The Browse project is a large-scale gas development located offshore Western Australia1. While specific investment potential details are limited, the project is expected to contribute significantly to BP’s gas production and LNG supply in the long term. (9)

Clair Ridge Expansion

The Clair Ridge project is the second phase of development of the Clair field, located west of the Shetland Islands in the UK. The project achieved its first oil in November 2018 and is expected to extend the life of the field to 2050. The project targets an estimated 640 million barrels of oil over a 40-year period, with peak production expected to be up to 120,000 barrels of oil a day (bpd). Clair Ridge is the first large-scale project to implement BP’s patented LoSal enhanced oil recovery (EOR) system, which alters the salinity of water injected into the reservoirs and increases oil recovery. (10)

Coconut

The Coconut project is a gas field off the southeast coast of Trinidad. The facility consists of an attended platform and export pipeline with 8 wells. While specific investment potential details are limited, the project is expected to contribute to BP’s gas production and potentially LNG supply in the region. (1) (2)

Cypre

Limited information is available on the Cypre project. However, it is likely a smaller-scale project within BP’s portfolio, potentially involving a subsea tie-back to an existing facility.

Ginger

Limited information is available on the Ginger project. However, it is likely a smaller-scale project within BP’s portfolio, potentially involving a subsea tie-back to an existing facility.

GTA Phase 2

The Greater Tortue Ahmeyim (GTA) project is a major LNG development located offshore Mauritania and Senegal. Phase 1 of the project is expected to produce around 2.5 million tonnes of LNG per annum1. Phase 2 is currently under evaluation, with a concept design that includes a gravity-based structure (GBS) and new wells and subsea equipment.

The total capacity of Phase 2 is expected to be between 2.5 and 3.0 million tonnes per annum11. The GTA project is expected to significantly boost economic growth in Mauritania and Senegal, with a positive medium-term outlook. (1) (11) (12)

Kaskida

The Kaskida project will be BP’s sixth hub in the Gulf of America, featuring a new floating production platform, producing from six wells in the first phase1. The project is expected to achieve peak production of approximately 85,000 boepd. (1)

Mento

The Mento Project consists of building an attended wellhead platform with well testing capability which will tie back to the Pelican platform1. The project includes 12 development wells, including 3 exploration tails. (1)

Murlach

Murlach is a high-pressure, high-temperature development located in the Central North Sea1. It will be tied back to the ETAP Central Processing Facility (CPF), partially utilizing existing subsea and topside infrastructure. The project is expected to achieve peak production of approximately 20,000 boepd. (1)

Raven Infills

The Raven Infills Project is a 2 well fast paced subsea tieback to existing Raven infrastructure.

Shah Deniz Compression

The Shah Deniz Compression project aims to increase gas production from the Shah Deniz field in the Caspian Sea.

Tangguh Ubadari Compression and Capture

The Tangguh Ubadari Compression and Capture project in Indonesia aims to increase gas production and implement carbon capture technology.

Tiber

The Tiber project is a deepwater oil development in the Gulf of America. (1)

Chevron’s Future Growth Project in Kazakhstan

Chevron recently announced the start of oil production at its Future Growth Project (FGP) located at the Tengiz oil field in Kazakhstan. This project is the third processing plant in operation at the Tengiz oil field and expands sour gas injection capability. The FGP expansion aims to increase crude oil production by 260,000 barrels per day at full capacity. The project has implemented advanced power systems, compression trains, and a new centralized control center. (13)

Environmental and Geopolitical Risks

Investing in oil and gas exploration projects carries inherent environmental and geopolitical risks that investors must carefully consider.

Environmental Risks

Oil and gas exploration activities can have significant environmental impacts, including habitat disruption, pollution, and greenhouse gas emissions. These impacts can pose risks to human health, biodiversity, and the climate.

Companies are increasingly adopting measures to minimize their environmental footprint, such as using advanced technologies to reduce emissions and implementing robust environmental management systems. Investors should consider the environmental performance of companies and projects when making investment decisions.

Geopolitical Risks

Geopolitical risks can significantly impact oil and gas exploration projects. These risks include political instability, conflicts and wars, terrorism, and sanctions. Geopolitical events can disrupt production, damage infrastructure, and impact investment returns.

Investors should carefully assess the geopolitical landscape and consider the potential impact of political events on their investments. For example, the ongoing conflict in Ukraine has heightened geopolitical risks in Europe, with potential implications for energy security and investment in the region.

Risks Associated with Investing in Oil and Gas Exploration

Investing in oil and gas exploration projects carries inherent risks that investors must carefully consider. These risks include geological risk, operational risk, price volatility, regulatory and political risk, and environmental and geopolitical risks. To mitigate these risks, investors should conduct thorough due diligence, diversify their portfolios, and carefully assess the risk profiles of individual projects.

Specific Project Risks

• Atlantis Drill Center 1 Expansion: Potential risks include deepwater drilling challenges, hurricane risks, and oil spill potential in the Gulf of America.
• Argos Southwest Extension: Similar risks to Atlantis Drill Center 1 Expansion, with the added complexity of a tie-back to an existing facility.
• Azeri Central East (ACE): Geopolitical risks in the Caspian Sea region, potential for pipeline disruptions, and operational challenges in a complex offshore environment.
• Browse: Challenges related to remote location, environmental sensitivities in the Australian offshore region, and potential for cost overruns in a large-scale LNG project.
• Clair Ridge Expansion: Operational risks in the harsh North Sea environment, potential for delays due to weather conditions, and challenges related to aging infrastructure.
• Coconut: Geological risks associated with gas field development, potential for production decline in a mature field, and environmental concerns related to offshore operations.
• Cypre and Ginger: Limited information available to assess specific risks.
• GTA Phase 2: Geopolitical risks in West Africa, potential for delays in a complex LNG project, and challenges related to infrastructure development in a developing region.
• Kaskida: Deepwater drilling challenges, hurricane risks, and oil spill potential in the Gulf of America.
• Mento: Geological risks associated with gas field development, potential for production decline in a mature field, and environmental concerns related to offshore operations.
• Murlach: Operational challenges in a high-pressure, high-temperature environment, potential for equipment failures, and risks associated with tie-back to an existing facility.
• Raven Infills, Shah Deniz Compression, Tangguh Ubadari Compression and Capture, and Tiber: Limited information available to assess specific risks.

Conclusion

Oil and gas exploration presents both opportunities and risks for investors. While the industry faces challenges related to price volatility, environmental concerns, and geopolitical risks, significant investment potential exists in upcoming exploration projects.

By carefully assessing these opportunities and risks, investors can make informed decisions and potentially achieve attractive returns in the oil and gas sector.

Synthesis

The oil and gas exploration sector is poised for continued activity in the coming years, driven by sustained global demand and ongoing technological advancements. While the industry faces challenges related to price volatility, environmental concerns, and geopolitical risks, significant investment potential exists in upcoming exploration projects.

Key takeaways for investors include:

• Diversification of Projects: Exploration activities are diversifying across various regions, including established production areas like the Permian Basin and emerging regions like Mexico and Kazakhstan.
• Technological Innovation: Technological advancements are playing a crucial role in enhancing oil and gas recovery, reducing environmental impact, and improving the economics of exploration projects.
• Energy Transition: Oil and gas companies are increasingly diversifying into renewable energy and low-carbon technologies, presenting new investment opportunities within the sector.
• Risk Mitigation: Investors should carefully assess the geological, operational, price, regulatory, environmental, and geopolitical risks associated with individual projects and adopt appropriate mitigation strategies.
• Alternative Energy: Alternative energy sources offer diversification benefits and align with the global transition towards a lower-carbon energy future. Investors should consider incorporating alternative energy investments into their portfolios.

By staying informed about industry trends, conducting thorough due diligence, and carefully managing risks, investors can potentially capitalize on the opportunities presented by oil and gas exploration in the years to come.

Works cited

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